How to Exclude Hindsight Bias from Your Sports Bets

Sports betting is a pastime activity that is interesting for everyone, no matter how much you are interested in that specific sport. We all want to wager on a team, and we all enjoy one or another type of play. Most people in the world bet on soccer or basketball, but you should know that games like cricket, football, and even horse races are extremely interesting things to wager on for millions of people around the globe.

Everyone who’s ever put their money on a team knows how it is to lose, and if you have never lost a wager, you are one of the extremely lucky ones. When we choose the team that we are going to root for, and when we put our money on a specific score, we hope and believe that our choices are going to lead us to profits.

However, sometimes we win, and sometimes we lose, and when we lose and think back, we believe that we should’ve predicted the outcome and that we could’ve been victorious. In this article, we will tell you how to exclude hindsight bias from your sports bets, and we will help you understand how this is going to help you with your future wagers and outcomes.

Hindsight bias explained


Before we delve into how to avoid this practice, let’s first talk about what it actually is and how it is going to affect you.

Every time we’ve betted on a game, and we’ve lost, we’ve said that there was something that we could have done to change the outcome. We believe that the game was actually far more predictive than we initially thought and that we should have known that.

In some cases, this might be true, and because of that, you need to have all the information at hand before you choose to put your wager. Sometimes the best player is going to get injured right before the play, and that will definitely affect the final result. In other tames, the main judge may be someone who is biased toward a team, and even though this should never happen, it may in some cases affect the result.

You need to get all the right information about the upcoming games before you put your wager in, and you need to be aware of all the things that could happen that would affect the game and ultimately, your profits.

To make sure that you are having all the information that you need, and to see what has happened before that may affect the upcoming results, you can check places like where you can not only follow the current games but can also check the statistics and the analysis of previous plays.

Nevertheless, these cases are not the ones that we are talking about, and when it comes to hindsight bias, some people believe that the game was far more predictable than they initially thought, and they let those thoughts cloud their judgment in every other wager that they make.
When people let past mistakes seriously affect their future decisions, this usually leads to more failures, and you need to understand that when you know the final score, every game will seem predictable. You need to know that ultimately, these games are all based on luck and the skills of the players, so sometimes, there is nothing you can do to predict the outcome.

How to exclude it?


Now that you know why this happens, let’s talk about the ways that you can exclude this and with that, be more successful in your upcoming wagers.

The first thing you need to understand is that sometimes there is nothing you can do to make a successful prediction, and sometimes things can happen during the match that will affect the outcome without you being even aware of the things happening. Sometimes a player can get kicked out of the game in the first few seconds, and at other times, a player may get injured as soon as the match starts, and that will affect the score no matter what.

When we make a mistake when putting our wager in, at the end of the game we surely say that we knew that this was going to happen, and we should have listened to our gut instead of believing statistics and analysis. In most cases, we never had that gut feeling, and we are just trying to make ourselves feel better.

Saying things like these, and repeating them over and over again will lead to mistakes in our judgment, and the next time we do our research and when we check the analysis, we are not going to believe what the numbers are telling us, and we will just end up in an infinite loop where we say that something was going to happen, but we still lost our money.


To avoid this practice, you need to understand that you should never overreact to some small changes, and you should not blame your gut or a higher power when something unpredictable happens. Those things are part of every match, and just because a player got injured, it does not mean that the statistics and the experts were wrong. They were just working with the data that they had, and with that data, chances are, the predicted outcome would’ve been correct.

You should also always check what the professionals are saying, and you should learn as much information about the upcoming games as you can. You need to see who is going to be on the bench, who is going to play in the game, and even who the judges are. You should see who the trainer is and if there have been any drastic changes in both teams that could affect the result. All of this information will help you make a well-rounded decision, and chances are, if everything goes according to plan, you will be able to make the correct wager and predict the outcome.

Try to avoid hindsight bias as much as you can, and even though you will feel like you should’ve known that something might happen, and you should’ve trusted your gut, remember that it is easy to say all those things when the match is over. Choose a good and trusted place where you can make your wager, and always check what has happened before, how the team is doing this season, and with all that information, place your bet.